Pandox AB

STO:PNDX B

Earnings Call Transcript 2021-Q2

[Operator]

Ladies and gentlemen, thank you for standing by, and welcome to the Pandox Q2 2021 Report Conference Call. [Operator Instructions] I must advise you, this conference is being recorded today. And I will now like to hand the conference over to your speaker, Anders Berg. Please go ahead.

[Anders Berg, Senior VP & Head of Communications and IR]

Thank you very much. Welcome, everyone, to this presentation of Pandox' second quarter for 2021. As you already heard, I'm Anders Berg, Head of IR at Pandox; and I'm here together with Liia Nõu, our CFO and acting CEO.And in line with our tradition through this pandemic, we have an external guest with us also today, Robin Rossmann, Managing Director, International at STR. And as you know, Robin represents a leading independent research firm focused on the hotel market, and he will share STR's view on the hotel market for us, and we are very happy to have him on board for this presentation.The report presentation is divided into 3 parts. First of all, Liia and myself will present a business update with financial highlights for the second quarter, followed by the external update from Robin, and then we wrap everything up with a Q&A session.Next page, please, and with that, I hand over to you, Liia.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Thank you. As you all probably know by now, on the 30th of May, our CEO, Anders Nissen, tragically passed away after a short period of illness. The loss of Anders is immeasurable on many levels. Anders had a big heart and a genuine interest in making the people around him grow. He was fearless, honest and a great source of inspiration for everyone he met. So we lost an exceptional leader, a close colleague and above all, a dear friend.I have had the privilege of working with Anders Nissen for over 14 years as CFO of Pandox, and it makes the sorrow around us extra severe. I respect for the assignment as acting CEO, and I'm very motivated to continue to develop this strong company. Together with a close-knit organization with competent entrepreneurial employees and a clear game plan, I feel optimism for the future.Next page, please, the page with our portfolio. Pandox has a well-diversified hotel property portfolio. In total, we have 156 hotel properties with more than 35,000 rooms in 15 countries and 90 cities and with a property market value close to SEK 61 billion.Pandox is divided into 2 business segments, Property Management and Operating Activities. In Property Management, we lease hotels to strong and well-known operators under long revenue-based agreements. This segment makes up for 84% of our property market value. In Operating Activities, we operate the hotels ourselves under different operating models. Operating Activities makes up for 16% of the property market value.Next page, please. Pandox has one of the strongest networks of brands and partners in the hotel industry. As you can see in the picture, we work together with several well-known operators, for example, Scandic in the Nordics, Jurys Inn in the U.K. and Leonardo Hotels in Germany. We also have long relationship with strong international brands such as Hilton, Crowne Plaza and Radisson Group. In our Operating Activities segment, we also have some independent brands created by Pandox, for example, Hotel Berlin, Berlin, which is Pandox' largest hotel with over 700 rooms.Next page, please. Hotel demand increased in all markets in the second quarter, but the development in April and May remained weak due to extensive restrictions remaining in place and delayed reopening in many markets. However, supported by a strong recovery in the U.K. and improvement in other markets, particularly in June, Pandox saw positive growth in revenue and earnings in both business segments. Our relationship with our banks are strong, and we have had close to SEK 4.4 billion in cash and unutilized credit facilities at the end of the quarter. At the same time, our loan-to-value was a strong 49.7%.Economic recovery in Pandox market is currently strong. This, combined with an increased vaccination rates and eased restrictions, is creating good underlying growth potential in the hotel markets. Progress in Europe and other large hotel markets such as the U.S. indicates that there's a considerable pent-up demand for travel, which is quickly converted into occupancy once restrictions are reduced and travel becomes easier.Pandox is in an attractive position, as around 80% of all our rooms are in regional and domestic cities, and therefore, we have high exposure to domestic demand, which will lead the recovery in the hotel market. Currently, contractual minimum rent and fixed rents are expected to make up the majority of our total revenue.And to sum up this slide, just a quick look at the numbers for the second quarter. Total net operating income increased by 32%. Like-for-like, Property Management decreased with 11%. Return on equity, measured by annualized growth in EPRA NRV, was approximately minus 5%.Next page, please. Positive growth was reported in the second quarter in all of our countries where Pandox has operations, partly explained by the increased demand due to eased restrictions and partly a weak comparison quarter in 2020. For the first time since the start of the pandemic, Pandox reports a positive earnings growth. This includes government support of around SEK 100 million, of which SEK 98 million in Operating Activities. Currently, contractual minimum rent and fixed rent remains our main source of income. And as you know, this income covers all Pandox' operating costs, including our interest payments.We report modest unrealized value changes in the Property Management in the quarter, and I'll come back to this later in the presentation. In the quarter, trade account receivables related to new payment terms amounted to some SEK 640 million, which is an increase compared to the previous quarter which was SEK 566 million.Next page, please. During the quarter, we have finalized the renovation of h27, it's spelled with a small H, in central Copenhagen. h27 or [Foreign Language] in Swedish, former name was Hotel 47, is a hotel which we overtook operations of in the beginning of the pandemic in 2020. All rooms in the lobby area and other common areas have been decorated with a focus of Danish design for the '50s and '60s. Total investment for Pandox was approximately SEK 35 million.Next page, please. Another beautiful hotel, Scandic Luleå. Another large project that was finalized during the quarter is the expansion of Scandic Luleå. The expansion includes a new hotel building with 9 floors and 119 new rooms. In addition, we have renovated the conference rooms, restaurant, gym and hotel rooms in existing hotel building. Total investment was approximately SEK 150 million.Next page, please. Pandox revenue base is diversified with revenue from different operational models and agreement types. Currently, minimum rent and fixed rent in Property Management are our main source of revenue. This amounts to almost SEK 2 billion per year or slightly less than SEK 500 million per quarter. In the second quarter, revenue-based rents amounted to some SEK 51 million, and revenue from Operating Activities amounted to SEK 146 million.Next page, please. Our different contract structures and operation models give different revenue exposure. Measured in number of rooms, where we have full and immediate impact from market recovery, it's 35%, out of which 16 percentage points comes from our own operations and 19% from revenue-based leases without any minimum guarantee rent. The remaining 65%, there is a gradual impact from the market recovery. Main part is our revenue-based leases with minimum guarantee rent.Next page, please. In the second quarter, Pandox valued the property portfolio according to the same method and model we have used since the IPO in 2015. Value changes in the second quarter were modestly negative, mostly explained by reduced cash flow due to COVID-19. Yields are largely unchanged due still to inconclusive transaction evidence. Approximately 70% of the properties have been externally valued during the last 12 months.External valuations exhibit a large dispersions between -- within and between markets. External valuations are, on average, some 6% below our internal valuations. The valuations difference is small in the Nordics and larger outside of the Nordics. The 22 external valuations, we've done 21 in Nordics and 1 in Switzerland carried out in the second quarter, are in total approximately 2% above Pandox' internal valuations in the second quarter.In the quarter, total unrealized and realized changes in value amounted to a negative SEK 109 million, of which negative SEK 105 million for investment properties and remaining SEK 4 million for operating properties. And again, please note that according to IFRS, unrealized changes in value for operating properties are only reported for information purposes and is not included in the EPRA NRV. End-of-period average valuation yield for investment properties, 5.46%; and operating properties, 6.38%.Next page, please. On this slide, we can see the value changes of our portfolio per quarter as well as accumulated value change from the start of the pandemic, Q1 2020. For the total portfolio, the accumulated negative value change over this period amounts to some 5.1%. And of course, there's a high correlation between restrictions and demand in the hotel market. When restrictions go down, demand goes up and vice versa.Developments in markets ahead of Europe in the recovery, such as U.S.A. and China, are very encouraging. When restrictions go down, demand go up, driven by domestic travelers, which benefit hotels with domestic and regional demand exposure, just like Pandox' portfolio. Furthermore, transaction relevant for Pandox indicate resilient valuations. And banks are accommodating, liquidity is strong, and transactions relevant to Pandox are supporting our property valuation.So the jury is still out how the world will look after the pandemic, of course. But so far, demand is clearly linked to restrictions, not change of behavior. We have an established and proven valuation process. We know our hotel properties better than anyone else. We have individual plans for each -- business plans for each and every property, and we have a detailed understanding of the specific revenue drivers for each asset. And yes, the pandemic has a negative short-term effect on the cash flows in our hotel properties, but we do not expect long-term yields to be affected in the same way.Next page, please. And then let's take a look at our EPRA NRV and financial position. End-of-period EPRA NRV per share amounted to SEK 169. This corresponds to a decrease of approximately minus 5% on an annualized basis. Loan-to-value, 49.7%. Cash, cash equivalents and long-term unutilized credit facilities amounted to approximately SEK 4.4 billion, which is all stable and strong picture since many, many quarters we had through this pandemic. Credit facilities maturing in less than 1 year amounts to approximately SEK 5.8 billion, of which approximately SEK 3.8 billion will mature in December 2021. We have a positive close dialogue with our lenders on new financing, refinancing as well as an adjustment of terms and covenants if needed in existing credit agreements, with consolidation of COVID-19. And during the second quarter, we also completed refinancing of approximately SEK 900 million.Lenders have given waivers in individual credit agreements where needed. A positive thing is that we also saw increased appetite for our commercial paper program, under which we have some SEK 647 million outstanding at the end of the second quarter.Next page, please, and I will now hand over to Anders Berg, who will talk about our path of getting back to full performance.

[Anders Berg, Senior VP & Head of Communications and IR]

Thank you, Liia. That's a challenging task, but I would try to do my best.As you know, this is the sixth consecutive quarter now affected by the COVID-19 pandemic. And from the beginning, we have organized our work around 3 focus areas: respond, restart, reinvent. And to be honest, most of our work has been and is centered around respond and restart, and that is keeping the ship in good order and being able to capitalize on the market recovery.Next page, please. We expect the hotel market recovery to take place in phases where different segments are gradually building up demand in the hotel market. Over the course of the pandemic, our markets have moved largely between Phase 1 and 4 depending on the level of restrictions in each market. The key driver in early phases is domestic demand, particularly domestic leisure, with some support from domestic business.Next page, please. The second quarter, as Liia said earlier, saw a weak start, as restrictions were still tough in most of Pandox markets. High vaccination rates and lower infection rates led to a gradual easing of restrictions and gradual improvements in demand in all of Pandox markets as the quarter progressed. Particularly in the U.K., there was an immediate and tangible uplift in hotel demand after the reopening on the 17th of May. As before, the main demand driver was domestic leisure, but domestic business also contributed with transient demand and demand for smaller meetings. International demand, however, was still low.Next page, please. The following slide summarizes basically the ebb and flow of demand throughout the pandemic in Nordic regional, Germany, U.K. regional and the individual cities, Stockholm and London. The chart on the left is based on monthly occupancy data, and the chart on the right is based on weekly data.I start with Nordic regional just to illustrate a pattern which is largely the same in all markets, and I'm describing the chart to the left. After a strong start in January and February 2020, harsh restrictions were imposed, and hotel demand fell sharply to its lowest level ever in April 2020. In May 2020, some restrictions were eased, and countries and cities opened up and hotel demand returned. Demand then increased gradually in June, July, August and September 2020, followed by a plateau in September.In the Nordics, which had a relatively lighter restriction situation, [ the summer ] was particularly strong. From October, when restrictions were reimposed again, hotel demand decreased quickly, and it remained weak all through the fourth quarter 2020 and the first quarter 2021. The occupancy rate for Nordic region in the second quarter of 2021 was approximately 40% with additional improvements in the first weeks of July. With the support of a strong economic recovery and rapidly increasing vaccination rates, the upturn we are currently seeing is hopefully, I underline hopefully, more robust than last year.Next page, please. It is a general trend across our markets that larger cities with a high dependence on international demand have seen a slower development in regional cities. Stockholm is no exception. However, during the second quarter, occupancy improved steadily, and there have been further improvements in the first week of July.Next page, please. Occupancy in Germany has largely followed the pattern I described earlier. However, restrictions in Germany have generally been tougher than in many other countries, which is reflected in the lower comparable absolute occupancy numbers. Starting from 15% in April this year, estimated occupancy in June was approximately 30% for the total German market. And also here, the recovery has continued in July.Next page, please. U.K. regional was the brightest spot in the second quarter. Occupancy rose immediately after the reopening, 17th of May, and reaching approximately 65% in June, and the trend has remained largely intact in the first 2 weeks in July. And U.K. illustrates well the direct correlation between restrictions and demand as well as the pent-up demand for travel and experiences.Next page, please. London is, as you know, one of the world's largest and most international cities, and it has been suffering from closed offices, corporate travel restrictions in general and, of course, lower international demand. However, starting in February 2021, occupancy has been increasing now for 5 consecutive months. And supported by the EURO 2020 event, July also got off to a good start.Next page, please. Clearly, we see the same pattern everywhere. Restrictions and demand are negatively correlated. But when you're allowed to travel, leisure demand picks up immediately, followed by domestic business demand, particularly for small and midsized companies.Next page, please. Talking about companies, one open question is what will happen with business travel. We, earlier, in this month did a survey of corporate clients in Pandox Operator Activities, which indicate a cautious transition to business travel in September and October. Key considerations for companies are infection rates, vaccination rates and restrictions. It appears that many companies will revise their travel policies during the summer or early autumn. We note that there is a strong economic recovery in most countries and corporate profitability is high, which is positive for the corporate travel outlook in general. An indicative conclusion from our talks is that fewer business trips could well be balanced by longer space and, therefore, more hotel nights while you travel.Next page, please. Looking at markets ahead of Europe in the recovery, particularly the U.S.A., trends continue to be encouraging. Leisure demand is strong, and business travel is picking up. In the final week of June, occupancy in the United States was approximately 70%, which is impressive considering that bigger meetings and events are still only at 50% of their 2019 levels. Large corporations still have travel restrictions in place, and international travel is generally very low.Next page, please. As you can see from the chart, the recovery in the U.S. has been strong with June estimated being the sixth consecutive month of improving occupancy.Next page, please. So to summarize, we currently see most the Pandox markets being in various stages of Phase 3. From a relative perspective, the U.K. is the strongest market; and Germany, the weakest. However, all markets are showing improving occupancy. The U.S.A. and China are further ahead, with early signs of increasing international demand and increasing demand for larger meetings.Next page, please. And now, Liia, over to you again.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Thank you, Anders. We see promising underlying growth conditions. We have solid economic recovery and increasing vaccination rates. There's a pent-up demand for travel, and demand picks up immediately after restrictions are eased. Domestic leisure demand continues to be the strongest driver short term. However, we hope to see improving domestic business demand from September and onwards. Main uncertainty is the Delta variant and reimposed restrictions.Next page, please. And now I would like to hand over to our guest speaker, Robin Rossmann, for hotel market update. And again, as Anders has said, please remember that this is a good but independent research separate from Pandox. So please go ahead, Robin.

[Robin Rossmann]

Thank you so much, Liia, and thank you, Anders. It's very good to be with you all this morning.So I'll take over and sort of moving on to Slide 29, really start with just reflecting on where we're at. There's obviously a lot of data that we'll go through here that has been used by Pandox in the presentation already, and I'll try and focus on the key points that haven't already been talked about and then move on to the outlook and finish with some conclusions.So next page. Next page on to Page 31, and I just wanted to say my own personal word on Anders, a man who really was so special in terms of the way he leaded Pandox, the industry, but also the way that he made you as an individual feel whenever you had the chance to meet him. Because it's very rare that you come across somebody that makes you more self-confident about yourself, and Anders was one of those people. And I think what was said earlier by Liia that he had a genuine interest in helping people to grow themselves is so true. So thank you, Anders, and thank you to the Pandox team for continuing his great work.So on to Page 32. There is no doubt that this year has been pretty tough. Certainly, the weather over here in the U.K. hasn't been anywhere near as sunny as it was last year. But the good news is that the outlook is certainly much better now.Moving on to Slide 33, even though in Europe it was a pretty tough year, what we saw is that elsewhere in the world is still the good examples of recovery, and certainly, China continuing to recovery -- recover; North America and the U.S. referred to earlier, having some good recovery; Middle East, strong recovery; Australia and Oceania, strong recovery.Throughout our presentation, we'll talk about 2 different types of occupancy. There's the standard occupancy, which is the occupancy of open hotels; but then we also do, for completeness, show what occupancy would be if you added back all of those temporary closed hotels, so that's total room inventory occupancy. And you can see for the markets on Slide 33 that there wasn't really much of a difference. Certainly, in North America, the vast majority of hotels having been reopened.However, when you go into Slide 34, two things you can see, number one, and a lot of these other regions and the rest of the world in Africa, Central South America and, of course, in Europe, occupancy is much lower at around 30% in Europe and even lower when you add back those temporary closures down to just about 20%. More on that in a bit, though.But coming back to the U.S. on Slide 35, really, it's interesting. A year ago at this time, we were looking at China as the example of the strongest recovery and the strongest benchmark of what recovery could look like. but the U.S. has certainly overtaken that now because of its more robust vaccine program, so less subject to having to lockdown for outbreaks like has been the case in China in the last couple of months, and I think a more resilient consumer base willing to travel despite any perceived risks that there may still be around COVID. And so we have seen in the U.S. some remarkable recovery in recent weeks. Demand indexed to 2019 levels is now trending at well over 90%. In fact, in recent weeks, it's been 95% of 2019 levels, which is quite remarkable given there really is still not that much recovery in business yet. So this is a lot of leisure-driven demand.That being said, you can see how strong it is coming back. What's not on the slide, but I'll add to it, is that from an average rate perspective, ADR, nominal ADR is now back to the same level it was in 2019. So rates are back in the U.S., and on a real basis, it's only -- so adjusting for inflation, it's only 5% below 2019 levels. And then when you look at the breakdown of hotels in the U.S., nearly half of all hotels have RevPAR that is at or above their previous peak RevPAR on a 28-day rolling average. So more than half of the hotels are already trading at above their pre-pandemic levels.Now this is more regional markets, more leisure hotels. And if you look at those larger urban hotels, they are still behind, but they are recovering. So really strong sums from the U.S., which is encouraging to see, particularly going on to Slide 36. Because in Europe, obviously, it has been a lot tougher throughout the year, although we have seen some recovery starting to come through towards the end of June and a similar way to what we saw as things were easing out of lockdowns last year at this time in some cases, a bit stronger like in the Nordics, and in some cases, a bit weaker like in Germany, whether the lockdowns have lasted further than they did in 2020.But looking at some benchmarks of stronger performance in Europe, if you go on to Slide 37, you can see very clearly that the U.K., Turkey and Russia all having much stronger performance than -- at an occupancy level than Europe as a whole for different reasons. Russia and Turkey had lower cases and were reopening until the Delta variant has come along and caused some challenges there. But certainly, the U.K., even with the Delta variant really quite rampant in terms of cases because of the high vaccination levels, the U.K. is still set to continue its reopening path. And we're seeing occupancies bounce up above 60% for the U.K. as a whole.Adding back to those temporary closures, if you move on to Slide 38, the U.K. occupancy on a total room inventory basis dropped to about 55%. But that's still a big recovery in a really short amount of time, and again, mostly driven by leisure.If you move on to Slide 39, if you index that to 2019, it shows us that U.K. total room inventory occupancy is now about 1/3 lower than it was in 2019. So not quite yet the strong recovery that we're seeing in the U.S. More group travel already happening in the U.S., more business happening in the U.S. and a stronger leisure market, less reliance on international is why the U.K. isn't at that 90%, 95% mark yet.From a rate perspective, also moving on to Slide 40, we are seeing recovery. And if you look at the U.K. as a benchmark again, you could see that it immediately jumped from being about 40% below 2019 levels to close on 20% below 2019 levels after the reopening, but it has stayed at that level. And we do expect it to recover, but the full recovery will obviously be reliant on return of international travel and business travel, particularly in London.So moving back to Europe, and if you look on Slide 41, you can see that it is beginning to recover. And we do expect that bounce to come back and be stronger than what it was in last year's summer with more pent-up demand, more resilience underpinned by the vaccine rollout. But as that vaccine rollout is not fully complete in many countries, there is, of course, the risk that the Delta variant could slow that recovery down.So moving on to Slide 42 and the outlook. It is definitely improving. And flipping over to looking at some of our forward data, so this is looking at business on the books, Slide 43 shows what business on the books look like for the next 2 weeks as at the 10th of May. And at that stage, it was really only the U.K. that was having any kind of positive trend, so having some growth and had the highest occupancy on the books plus pickup, in other words, rooms that have been sold in the last week for the next 2 weeks.So Slide 43, the U.K. was definitely leading the way at 22% on the books, and everybody else was below that.If you move on to Slide 44, then occupancy on the books as at the beginning of June was much, much better in the U.K., about 32% on the books, picking up 7% each week. And that was well ahead of what we were seeing everywhere else in Europe, underpinned by that earlier reopening in the middle of May, that sort of immediate bounce back of consumer confidence. And that really wasn't the case in the rest of Europe yet.And as we move on to Slide 45, we see where we are now on the 5th of July. Looking forward, the U.K. even stronger, so 40% on the books, picking up 7% each weeks, which is you add that 7% for 2 weeks in a row, plus a bit more, you get to that 55%, 60% occupancy. And you can see that Ireland is pretty much caught up. Spain is pretty much caught up, and we expect Spain to do a lot more strongly as the key leisure season comes in now. But the rest of Europe still a good 20 percentage points behind the U.K., so probably still a month or 2 to catch up to those U.K. levels and reliant on the continued vaccine rollout.And certainly, when you look at German cities on Slide 46, you can see that really only starting to slowly climb now as they come out of the pandemic -- of the lockdowns.So just a few more slides on the U.K. recovery because it is such a strong benchmark of what we expect to happen in the rest of Europe. And splitting it out a bit more between the regional markets and London, London, obviously, more significantly impacted. As you can see on Slide 48, regional markets on a total room inventory basis, occupancy up at 60%; whereas London is down, trending at 40%.And as you look on to Slide 49 into the future, this shows you business on the books into the future, you can see that the regional U.K. is likely to continue to outperform London well into Q3 and probably into Q4 because of that less reliance on international and business. But the gap is closing, and the best way to see that gap is closing is on Slide 50, and the momentum that's being built in the market. This shows you that same business on the books into the future, but it's tracked each week going back to just before the reopening on the 17th of May. And the important thing to look out for here is as you move forward to where we are now on the 5th of July, which is that red line, you can see that each week of data shows how the business on the books into the future is building each week.So the darker green line is above the lighter green line, which means that we should continue to see performance improvement as the weeks go on in the regional U.K. And very importantly, the lines to really watch out for are those dips because the dips are the midweek. You've got the weekend peaks and the dips. And what we're seeing is the weekend peaks are staying high, but the midweek dips are catching up. And so usually in the regional U.K., you would see the midweek being above the weekend. At the moment, the midweek is lower because of the reliance on business, but we are seeing that catch-up and that momentum going out into the future.And the same applies for London, if you look on Slide 51. You can see that it is improving, and particularly, the midweek is improving.So there definitely are still reasons to be cautious. And if you move on to Slide 53, you can look -- this is looking at forward data and comparing 2 quite comparable markets: Balearic Islands, Canary Islands post leisure demand. The main difference between these is a change in -- or a warning of a change in status, certainly in the U.K. and coming off a green list, which has immediately resulted in a much bigger decline in the Balearic Islands and forward booking cancellations coming through versus Canary Islands. So an important reminder that recovery of the hotel sector is reliant on that restrictions are removed and stay away and consumer has confidence to book again, both from a business and a leisure perspective.So going back to conclusions. We're not here to forecast what's going to happen scientifically from that. But certainly, from what we've seen in the U.S. now is a really good benchmark and really a much more similar type economy than China from a benchmark for European perspective. It is very positive to see that strong recovery there. I'll go back to those numbers I referenced. Demand indexed to 2019 trending well above 90% already. ADR already back at 2019 levels on a nominal basis, 5% behind on a real basis. And when you look at individual hotels, over half of hotels already recovered their RevPAR back to pre-pandemic levels, and that is without much international travel at all, pretty much 0. That is certainly with some business happening and some group happening, group back about 50% of what it would be. But even without those fully recovering, that pent-up demand really driving strong rapid recovery across the country. And certainly, that will be the market to watch as we head into August and September to see how business travel picks up there, as they are ahead of the Europe from a vaccination perspective.So from that point, I will hand back to you, Liia.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Thank you, Robin, for this fantastic hotel market update. And this concludes the presentation part. We're now moving over to Q&A. But please remember that Robin is also on the line, so if you have any questions for him, then it will be greatly appreciated.So operator, we are now ready for questions.

[Operator]

[Operator Instructions] Your first question comes from the line of Simen Mortensen.

[Simen Mortensen, Analyst]

Yes. I just have a question in terms of the deferred rental payments, which seems to be growing in the quarter. In Q-on-Q -- in Q1, I think it was SEK 295 million. Now it's SEK 364 million on the long-term basis. Could you just give us a comment on the payments if you are giving more discounts? Or at what level the payments are coming in? And give us a flavoring on also on which markets we're talking about these deferred rental payment plans are now increasing in size.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Yes. Absolutely. Thank you, Simen. Like we said on the last call, there is -- we don't give any rebates on the minimum rent, but we do -- we have given repayment plans, change repayment plans. This has increased exactly according to plan. These are related to Germany mainly. And the increase is then for the German operators there, as Germany has, as we heard through the presentation, had been hit pretty hardly. Restrictions are easing more slowly, and also, the governmental sort of right of not paying sort of immediately have been stronger there. So it's according to plan, but we think it's peaking out now. So -- and the repayments of these will be starting in basically the end of [ Q3 ].

[Simen Mortensen, Analyst]

Okay. And you said -- just [ correct me ], do you think it's peaking out now or during Q3?

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

We think it will be peaking out now. There will maybe be some smaller ones in Q3, but in all substance, they are peaking out now, we hope so.

[Simen Mortensen, Analyst]

And my last -- okay. Yes. Great to see, I guess, a bit of coloring on that. In terms of refinancing, [indiscernible] it has been a while since you have refinanced your debt. And as it comes more and more near term, do you have any expectations of when you're going to refinance the debt? And how do you think the pandemic or the situation now might impact that situation and the cost of refinancing, given the -- what we have behind us and what we are looking forward for us?

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Yes. Well, as we always do at Pandox, we start -- or before the pandemic, we started discussions with our banks, long 9 months, 6 months before. Anything is due. Everything that's actually due in 2021 is basically finalized. But we do, of course, have the refinancing done in Q4. So things that are being -- are due for 2022, we are starting to have this again [ off the patience ].Generally, again, like all this pandemic, banks have been very supportive. We have refinanced the same amount as before and even though LTVs, of course, have changed a little bit. And all in all, basically same conditions, except for the fact that it's shorter maturities and some 25, 30 basis points above what was expected before. That's also one of the reasons why we rose our refinancing on the shorter term because I think we all like to get out of this before we sort of put the longer maturities in place.

[Operator]

There are no more questions -- sorry, there's one. Next question comes from the line of Fredric Cyon.

[Fredric Cyon, Research Analyst]

I have only one question, and it relates to rental income from the Property Management unit going into the third quarter. So last year, adjusting for one-offs, I think it was around SEK 600 million. When I read your statement, Liia, in the quarterly report, it sounds like you're quite cautious on the variable rents going into the second half of 2020 -- second half of this year. Considering that the occupancy levels generally are higher now than they were during the third quarter of last year, shouldn't we expect that the rental income within Property Management increasing year-over-year? Or are there any other items that I should be aware of?

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Yes. Again, like we said the last time and also, we want to emphasize that the structure of the agreement when we have revenue-based, sort of, above minimum the revenue growth levels, they are looked at on a yearly basis. So in order to get above that minimum rent threshold, in the Nordics, the threshold is typically around 40%, 50% on where we have revenue-based above the minimum rent. Outside the Nordics, it's around 60%, and that's because we signed the leases more recently because of transactions. But it's basically on a yearly basis.So I'm confident we will fly out of this year in 2021 into 2022 with a different pace. But in order for the hotels that have a minimum threshold, then it needs to be above those levels for the full year. And of course, we started out pretty poorly for the first 5 months. Now it's picking up. But in order to sort of get above that, some hotels will hopefully do that. But for a yearly basis, we are more sort of cautious.

[Fredric Cyon, Research Analyst]

Okay. So basically, due to the catch-up effect, we shouldn't expect much growth for the third quarter then?

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Well, again, we have the 30 hotels where we don't have minimum rents. We have our Operating Activities, so there, of course, it's variable from the first kroner, from the first occupancy percentage. But all in all, versus what it should be or was in 2019, 2021 is still the lagging -- the course of the hotels -- the first a little bit weaker half year than we expected in the second half year.

[Anders Berg, Senior VP & Head of Communications and IR]

Yes. Maybe I can add on. The pure sort of revenue-based agreements that Liia spoke about, 30 or something mainly in the Nordics, of course, I mean, in those agreements, prospects are reasonably good for rents to be higher.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Absolutely. Yes. Thank you.

[Operator]

There are no more questions at this time. Please continue.

[Liia Nõu, Acting CEO & CFO]

Okay. That's all folks. Thank you for participating in this call. I know there's a lot of reports out there. You're all busy. You all want to go out in this nice weather, but we're really appreciating that you are listening in.Our Q -- third quarter 2021 interim report is published on the 27th of October. So thank you. Stay safe, and stay at our hotels, and have a great summer. Goodbye.

[Operator]

That does conclude our conference for today. Thank you for participating. You may all disconnect.